- Los Angeles Dodgers are -210 betting favorites at BetMGM for Game 4 of the World Series; Toronto Blue Jays are +170
- Ohtani MVP odds shift to -380 after unworldly Game 3 performance
- Strikeout projections for Ohtani and Bieber expected to see lopsided betting action
With most people, especially on the east coast, shaking out the cobwebs after last night’s record-breaking, 6-hour, 39-minute, 18-inning spectacle in Game 3 of the World Series, with the Dodgers defeating the Blue Jays 6-5 on a Freddie Freeman home run off Brendon Little, the attention on this wild series shifts just 17 hours later to Game 4 tonight (8 p.m. EST).
Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after hitting a walk-off home run in the 18th inning of Game 3 of the World Series between the Blue Jays and the Dodgers in Los Angeles last night. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)Springer Injured
For bettors, looking at the Blue Jays, it’s tough to find any solace. Probably the No. 1 storyline to emerge from last night’s game was the injury to George Springer, and the severity of that.
Springer swung through a pitch in the seventh inning and immediately grabbed his side, wincing. He was sent for an MRI. That’s suggests a body core issue, and that means as a power hitter he won’t be able to generate the torque needed to hit long balls.
As Sportsnet broadcaster Buck Martinez said last night, injuries like that aren’t typically short term, so barring a medical miracle Springer – arguably the Blue Jay’s MVP this season – won’t be in the lineup tonight.
If he can’t go tonight, that would mean Bo Bichette, also dealing with a knee issue, moves to DH, Isiah Kiner-Falefa moves to second base.
Bieber a Wildcard for Bettors
Blue Jays’ starting pitcher Shane Bieber is a wildcard tonight.
The former Cy Young Award winner has been so-so this post season, understandably, since he was coming off Tommy John surgery when the Jays traded for him in August. He looked ordinary in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Mariners (3.2 IP, 7 hits and 2 runs) and not-so-good in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees (2.2 IP, 5 hits and 3 runs). In the middle there was a good game in a decisive Game 3 against the Mariners in Seattle, with his team down in the series 2 games to zero (6 IP, 4 hits and 2 runs).
And yes, he is starting on seven days’ rest.
Ohtani on Base 9 Times
Who knows the full extent of each of the team’s bullpen health after last night’s carnage – the Dodgers relievers combined for 13 1/3 scoreless innings, while the Blue Jay’s bullpen allowed three runs in 12 2/3 (including a heroic effort by Eric Lauer, 68 pitches, 4.2 extra innings pitched).
Baseball’s freak of nature, Shohei Ohtani, who had two home runs last night, two doubles and reached base a mind-boggling 9 times, also is the Dodgers’ starting pitcher tonight. In the NLCS against the Brewers, in his one start in that series, Ohtani had 10 strikeouts.
“He’s spent,” Roberts said Sportsnet. “He was on base nine times tonight, running the bases. He’s elated. But, yeah, he’s taking the mound tomorrow. He’ll be ready.”
In Toronto all the talk is the job by plate umpire Mark Wegner last night, including one called strike on 3-1 count to Daulton Varsho that was so far out of the zone Bo Bichette, on first place, assumed it was a ball, walked to second and was then tagged out by Freeman. The call was both wrong and late.
Still, blame the umps? No, not when you’re facing a beast like Ohtani. Don’t expect the Jays to pitch to Ohtani at all tonight. He’s beat them enough.
Take a Shot on Gimenez HR?
Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant, says from his vantage point, for Game 4, he expects two strikeout projections for Ohtani and Bieber to see lopsided action – Ohtani Over 6.5 (-119) and Bieber Under 4.5 (+106) .
“Can Ohtani do it again even while pitching? +1 HR’s paying +206 likely as we’ve heard will be the most bet prop tonight,” he said. “The Blue Jays’ bottom of the order are still getting it done, and there might be some tired arms late, so Ernie Clement +1040 or Andres Gimenez +1360 to hit a HR, that certainly could see some shot takers there.”
Wild Action Expected On Over?
FanDuel has the Over/Under at 8 (-114 on the Over, -106 on the Under). ESPN BET has the Over/Under at 8.5 (Even on the Over, -120 on the Under).
“That is interesting given both team’s offences and there could be a lot of bullpen action. If it’s a wild one again that sails over. He is Ohtani, but the Jays don’t strike out, so it will be interesting if they get to him at some point and fatigue sets in. And interesting prop to look at “pitcher to record the win” – Ohtani +112, and Bieber a whopping +465.
“‘Win the first 5 innings’ is Jays at +180 and that again should certainly see some lopsided action given the price. 5 innings lines have always been traditionally well bet – very popular with bettors. I’m hearing money and tickets are split on the moneyline and total but 75% of both on Dodgers to cover runline -1.5 -103 right now.”
Moneyline at BetMGM is Blue Jays +170, Dodgers -210, the Run-in Jays +0.5 (+115), Dodgers -0.5 (-150), and the O/U 8 (-110).
Ohtani MVP odds are now -380 at FanDuel after last night’s performance.
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