“Nobody knows sh*t.”

— Dave Sharapan, The Sportsbook Consiglieri

When I started working in a casino, only Nevada allowed them in the United States. Our slot machines ran on coins and involved physically spinning reels, and many of the rewards were paid in coins as the device spat them onto a metal tray. People who wanted to play the machines would buy the coins in wrappers, and one way we would identify good players in our casinos was by the pile of coin-wrapping paper on the floor around the player.

Things have changed over the last 50-plus years, and one constant of that change is that it has seemed fairly orderly. It defined a continuum, with an occasional bump here and there.

Sure, it was a big deal when Atlantic City opened, and it seemed like a game-changer. Still, it was just a hopscotch across the country until most U.S. states had casinos, and they were all basically delivering a product that was not fundamentally different than that offered in Nevada for many years.

Then, in 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states could legalize sports betting within their borders. This set the stage for the offering of betting applications delivered over the internet, and things really seemed to change. This was a different animal — virtual delivery — and in the U.S., not many folks understood much about it. It also involved sports betting, and not a lot of folks in the U.S. understood that either.

The operators initially became dependent on foreign talent, the regulators became somewhat lost, and much of the country’s population became 90-day wonders of all things betting.

One of the things that recently fascinated me was that, as a result of the recent betting scandal involving professional athletes, the Las Vegas Review-Journal actually interviewed Las Vegas bookies to gather their take on it all. I found that refreshing, where the press actually sought out real bookies to interview about sports betting.

Confusion reigns 

If it wasn’t sufficiently confusing to the many involved in working to understand and regulate the internet delivery of sports betting products, right in the middle of that, we now have firms believing they are in sports betting markets not under state gaming regulators’ control, but under a federal regulatory entity that seems short of members.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent federal agency responsible for regulating derivative markets. It is comprised of a commission of five people appointed by the president with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate. It currently has a commission that has an acting chair and no other commissioners. The effort to secure a chairman has proven troubling, and not without controversy. 

It now appears that President Donald Trump has selected Michael Selig as the new chair. His scheduled Senate confirmation process is uncertain because of the government shutdown. He is currently with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is seen as a person who will aggressively pursue President Trump’s crypto agenda.

Moreover, the Financial Times recently reported that the drone company Unusual Machines had just received its largest contract ever from the Pentagon. What is interesting is that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to Unusual Machines.

What is also interesting is that Donald Trump Jr. is also a special advisor to Kalshi. Kalshi is a regulated exchange and prediction market platform, and, since you asked, it is regulated by the CFTC.

Oh, and Kalshi believes that sports markets fit within the CFTC’s remit, as the British would say. This means they believe they can offer a wide range of products in the exchange and prediction space that mimic sports betting. This would be without all those messy details of being regulated by states, paying taxes to states, having to address either real or pretend problem gambling issues, and the like.

But wait, there’s more

Trump Jr. has also been reported to have made a substantial investment in Polymarket through the anti-ESG investment vehicle 1789 Capital, of which Trump Jr. is a partner. Trump Jr. was also named as a Polymarket strategic advisor. Polymarket is a crypto-native prediction market.

And now we learn that Truth Social is planning on offering prediction markets and will be the first social media platform to do so. This will be in an exclusive partnership with Crypto.com. Crypto.com recently received approval from the CFTC (yes, that CFTC) to offer margined derivatives. 

Crypto.com had received a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in August 2024. A Wells notice informs an entity that it is under investigation by the SEC. Crypto.com filed suit against the SEC in October 2024. The SEC informed Crypto.com that it was dropping the investigation shortly after the Trump inauguration.

The majority owner of Truth Social (Trump Media and Technology Group) is the Donald Trump Revokable Trust. Donald Trump Jr. holds 10% of the stock. The trust is under Donald Trump Jr.’s control. 

Did you get all that?

Be careful out there, kids. Things are changing fast, and they are subject to rules that we do not yet know about or understand. As Grace Slick said as Jefferson Airplane opened the Sunday session of Woodstock on August 17, 1969: “It’s a new dawn.” 

As a service to you all, I can explain what all of this means. As my recently departed friend Dave Sharapan, The Sportsbook Consiglieri, used to say:

“Nobody knows sh*t.”

—

Richard Schuetz entered the gaming industry working nights as a blackjack and dice dealer while attending college and has since served in many capacities within the industry, including operations, finance, and marketing. He has held senior executive positions up to and including CEO in jurisdictions across the United States, including the gaming markets of Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Reno/Tahoe, Laughlin, Minnesota, Mississippi, and Louisiana. In addition, he has consulted and taught around the globe and served as a member of the California Gambling Control Commission and executive director of the Bermuda Casino Gaming Commission. He also publishes extensively on gaming, gaming regulation, diversity, and gaming history. Schuetz is the CEO of American Bettors’ Voice, a non-profit organization dedicated to giving sports bettors a seat at the table.