• Aspinall defends heavyweight title Saturday against Gane
• Aspinall is -380 at Caesars Sportsbook

No, this weekend’s heavyweight title fight at UFC 321 in Dubai isn’t Jon Jones or Alex Pereira, but it can’t be disputed that Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane are the best heavyweight in MMA.

Tom Aspinall of England (left) and Ciryl Gane of France pose during the UFC 321 press conference at Etihad Arena today in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC.

Tyson on MMA

Who better to listen to on the topic of heavyweight fighting than Mike Tyson? Tyson spoke to rapper Fat Joe for Hard Rock Bet and was asked if ever considered becoming a UFC fighter.

“No, because listen, five of the biggest UFC fighters combined couldn’t match my pay,” said Tyson. “I want to be the biggest fighter, the biggest purse. I want all that stuff. When Mike Tyson fights, he shuts everything down.” 

Still, Aspinall and Ciryl should get paid handsomely for Saturday night’s bout at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.

Aspinall Big Betting Favourite

Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor, says he’s biased towards Aspinall, since Aspinall is a British fighter, and he’s a Brit himself.

“Both Tom and Ciryl are powerful, technical, have speed and have multiple ways of winning a fight, attributes not usually associated with heavyweights,” Collier told Casino.org. “However, from the early betting activity with us, it seems that most are expecting this one over inside two rounds. Is this the old and typical mentality of betting from punters placing money on a heavyweight clash or completely intentional with who is on show this Saturday.”

His prediction – Aspinall by submission (+300 in Las Vegas), and Over 1.5 Rounds (-120 in Las Vegas).

Ground Game

“In our opinion, with the nature of both the division and risks of any bout at this weight, you have to assume that Tom will want to further expose Gane’s questionable grappling, somewhat replicating what Jon Jones did over two years ago (Round 1 Submission),” said Collier.

“Ciryl will want to keep this bout standing and at range therefore countering the other side of Aspinall’s game and seeing if the Brit’s cardio is good enough for the championship rounds. 

“With this in consideration, we expect the bout to go Over 1.5 Rounds (currently 4/6 with BetVictor) and Tom to absolutely dominate Ciryl on the ground. As much as Aspinall has the ability to do what Jones did back at UFC 285, you would expect Gane to have improved on this facet of his fight game, proving more durable.

“However, with Tom’s mature fight IQ, temperament and patience, we think he will show that this new generation of heavyweight can win in a long-distance battle rather than just knock people out.”

Early Start for UFC Card

According to Brandon Yaeger, Combat Sports Lead Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, Aspinall is very popular with bettors there, in part considering that Jones, considered by many to the greatest heavyweight of all time, seemed hesitant to fight him.

“I believe Tom Aspinall will dominate the majority of the money, primarily with parlay action since he is a -400 favorite and there isn’t a ton of value there straight betting,” he said.

“As far as why, well, we’ve already seen what Gane has to offer on the ground…and that’s nothing. Francis Ngannou, who wasn’t a wrestler, controlled him (in January 2022), and Jones took him down and submitted him (at UFC 285 in March 2023) right away. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Aspinall do the exact same against a guy who arguably shouldn’t be getting a title fight to begin with.”

Women’s Title Fight

UFC 321 starts at 2 p.m. EST on Saturday. Also on the main card is Virna Jandiroba versus Mackenzie Dern in a women’s strawweight title bout.

All eyes are on the heavyweight bout though.

“Usually when guys are at that price, people will take some value plays on the dog, but we’ve yet to see that happen for this fight,” said Yaeger. “Even with the low straight bet count on him, [Aspinall] is a very popular anchor for the parlays, and I expect his Method of Victory and Round finish to be very popular this week.”

A quick scan at the odds: Aspinall is at -380 at Caesars Sportsbook, Gane at +300, at DraftKings Aspinall is at -345, Gane at +275, and at FanDuel Aspinall is at -400, Gane at +300.

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