• Cowboys take a big swing by acquiring Quinnen Williams from Jet
• Seattle acquires WR Shaheed to team up with Darnold
• Parity the underlying narrative half way through the NFL 2025 season

The Dallas Cowboys were first out of the gate on NFL trade deadline day this morning, picking up Logan Wilson, the 29-year-old linebacker, from the Cincinnati Bengals, who’s recorded at least 100 tackles each year between 2021-2024, for a seventh-round draft pick. The NFL trade deadline was 4 p.m. EST today.

Quinnen Williams of the New York Jets rushes Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during a game at MetLife Stadium in September. Williams, a Pro Bowler, was traded today to the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images.

Wilson will help fill the gaps in a porous Cowboys’ defence. Not exactly a replacement for Micah Parsons though. Dallas went down hard last night at home to the Arizona Cardinals, 27-17, and are now 3-5-1, second in the NFC East, out of the playoff picture halfway through the season.

The Cowboys then came back in the afternoon and announced a blockbuster, getting an impact player – three-time Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams in a trade with the Jets, with a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and DT Mazi Smith going the other way, seriously beefing up their defensive line.

Darnold Given Another Weapon

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, +2000 for league MVP at DraftKings, was given another weapon in WR Rashid Shaheed, brought over in a trade with the Saints, with fourth- and fifth-round selections in the 2026 draft going the other way. Shaheed is a free agent this off season. He’s legit – 44 receptions for 499 yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Las Vegas Raiders traded WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a fourth- and sixth-round draft pick. The Jaguars are 5-3 in the AFC South, chasing the division leading Indianapolis Colts. The Buffalo Bills were one the teams interested in Meyers.

How all this impacts betting going forward is an interesting question.

Colts Stub Their Toe

In terms of straight-up wins and losses, underdogs are 40-94-1 so far this season, but are better against the spread (59-74-2). Parity has been the story halfway through – there’s no dominant team. 

“Dogs putting up a fight for the first time in a couple of weeks was the story of the early morning slate,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, after Sunday’s games. “Four straight-up dogs and a sprinkle of lower-scoring games swung the results the book’s way early, although there were a few big decisions that went the customer’s way. The later games were completely overshadowed by the marquee matchup of the week in Buffalo. The difference in handle between the Chiefs and Bills compared to the other two games was astronomical. All the results in the afternoon went the customers’ way with two favorites covering and the very popular Bills on the money line.”

The Colts, 7-1 going into their game Sunday, turned the ball over six times against the Steelers. QB Daniel Jones had three interceptions. The Colts had turned the ball over just four times in the previous eight games. Jones’ MVP odds dropped to +2500.

The Colts have been beating soft teams so we’re about to find out how real they are. They made a huge splash today – acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets, in exchange for first-round draft picks in 2026 and 2027. Gardner had signed a four-year $120.4 million extension this past off season.

The Lions cruised to a 4-1 start and looked like Super Bowl favourites then were upset 27-24 by the Vikings on Sunday.

Bills Back as Super Bowl Favourites

And Good Lord, the Packers – looking so impressive in handling those same Steelers Oct. 26 to tripping all over themselves Sunday at home against the middling Panthers, losing 16-13. The Panthers were -1200 at ESPN BET ML going into that game. Before a late touchdown by Josh Jacobs the Packers’ offence moved within the Panthers’ 35-yard line on five of their first six possessions and came away with only two field goals.

A quick look at the ESPN Power Index this morning sees the Bills No. 1 in projected wins at 11.9, followed by the Colts at 11.6. The Chiefs, despite losing to the Bills in Buffalo Sunday, are still the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the Power Index, at 10.9% followed by the Colts at 10.7% and the Bills at 10.1%.

Public Versus Sharp Money

How’s the public versus sharp money splitting on underdogs compared to favorites half way through this year?

“These are a little circumstantial, but generally the public likes to look at standings and what happened the previous week with teams,” said Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM. “For example, the Panthers beating the Packers and now being 5-4 should reflect in more public backing this week. Essentially, the public likes to bet favourites they like while the sharps tend to try and bet underdogs where they can find value. However, this can vary week to week.”

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