New Jerseyans elected Mikie Sherrill to be their — our to me, since I’m a Jersey guy — next governor. It was an unexpected landslide, as the Democrat won over 56% of the vote over Republican candidate Jack Ciatarrelli on Tuesday.

At least one group is hopeful Sherrill’s election will help its cause. CEASE, a.k.a. Casino Employees Against Smoking Effects, sent out a breathless (pun intended) press release post-Sherrill victory, congratulating her and looking forward “to working with her to close the casino smoking loophole that has left casino workers breathing toxic air for far too long.”

I wouldn’t hold my breath (pun’ed again), CEASE. 

I don’t see it happening. I don’t see a full smoking ban in Atlantic City today, tomorrow, or anytime this decade.

Will it eventually happen? Yeah, sure, mostly because cigarette smoking rates are cratering. According to a Gallup poll from last year, 11% of Americans smoked a cigarette in the past week. That’s the lowest rate ever, and it was nearly halved in 10 years.

People aren’t smoking old-fashioned cigarettes like they used to. I’m confident that as the last generation of smokers dies off, Atlantic City boosters and casino owners and everyone else will be more amenable to a smoking ban.

But while your Uncle Jimmy is still sucking down Marlboros and your Aunt Gertie is lighting up her Virginia Slims, it’s simply not going to happen. The political will is not there.

How do I know this? Because if it didn’t happen under Gov. Phil Murphy’s watch, it ain’t gonna happen under Sherrill. 

Stalled out

As it stands now, a bill in the state Senate — and it’s a bipartisan bill — was introduced last year to eliminate the carve-out smokers get inside casinos. Nutshell: New Jersey effectively banned all indoor smoking in 2006, but allowed casinos to dedicate 25% of their floor to smoking. Every single casino has done so. None has banned it outright.

The current bill to close the loophole was introduced in January 2024, made one brief committee stop a few weeks later, and hasn’t moved since. Translation: It’s dead for now.

Here’s the thing that should tell you everything: Murphy publicly said he’d sign a smoking ban if it reached his desk, the bill has bipartisan support, and CEASE claims nearly 80 percent of South Jerseyans want it.

So why has it been stuck after one hearing? Because the casino owners don’t want it, and legislators see that as “this threatens tax revenue and jobs in my district.” No amount of public support or gubernatorial promises — which, to be clear, there were not any of — can overcome that math.

Or, to put it another way: It’s the economy, stupid.

In 2024, the casinos in Atlantic City generated $3.3 billion in revenue and contributed over $883 million in taxes and fees. Plus they spent another $605 million on goods and services, and employ more than 23,000 people. They account for 20% of hotel stays in the state and for 20% of same-day travel in the state. They print money for the state and its residents, basically.

And the casino owners — while recognizing smoking will eventually be banned — are in no rush to do so. They see it as a very real threat to their bottom line.

“A pure smoking ban is one of the greatest threats to our business right now,” Mark Giannantonio, president of Resorts Casino Hotel in Atlantic City and of the Casino Association of New Jersey, said last year, predicting it would cost 2,500 jobs as smokers would go to other states where they could smoke while playing Huff N’ Puff (again, pun intended.) 

Predictably, groups like CEASE push back on this notion, but let’s be real. If the casino owners are against a full ban, there’s simply not going to be a full ban. There’s too much money at stake. 

The message to casino workers is clear, if terrible: Your lungs matter less than the state’s — and the casino’s — bottom line. That won’t change under Sherrill, or probably under whoever comes after her. It’ll only change when there aren’t enough smokers left to matter — and the casinos decide it themselves.